The devastating effects of President Donald Trump’s government tariffs, which are having a disastrous effect on international equities and economies, have put Nigeria’s economy on the edge.
More economic problems in Nigeria brought on by the shockwaves of the global trade war have alarmed economists and financial experts.
In particular, analysts caution that Nigeria’s 2025 income projection may be impacted by the current global trade conflict in the wake of falling oil prices, stock prices, and currency rate depreciation.
The events occurred during Monday’s slaughter on global stock markets, when the FTSE 100 fell 4.4% and Wall Street’s S&P 500 fell as high as 4.7% during tumultuous trading.
On Monday, in what has been dubbed “Black Market Monday,” stocks in both the European and Asian markets crashed.
As of the report’s submission, Brent was trading at $65 per barrel, and WTI was at $61.63 per barrel.
According to a Bloomberg analysis, since the Trump administration announced tariffs on April 2, 2025, global markets have fallen into bear market territory, wiping away around $9.5 trillion.
Investors lost N659 billion on Monday, demonstrating that the Nigerian market Exchange is not immune to worldwide market declines.
Still, the naira fell to a record low of N1,612.23 per dollar on Monday, causing significant losses on the nation’s foreign currency market.
Reacting to the incident in separate interviews, economists and financial experts noted that Nigeria’s economy is in a particularly poor state and suggested ideas for the road ahead.
In the meantime, Nigeria’s Finance Minister Wale Edun dismissed the potential effects of Trump’s 14 percent tax on Nigeria during a Corporate Governance Forum event hosted by the Ministry of Finance Incorporated, or MOFI.
With an export trade between Nigeria and the US worth around $9 billion, Edun said, “Consequently, the tariff effect on exports is negligible if we sustain our oil and mineral export volume.”
In the meantime, Edun said there would be a review of Nigeria’s N54.99 trillion budget where necessary to match up with the current economic realities.
“Budget adjustment and prioritisation where possible, and also innovative non-debt financing strategies,” Edun listed the possible countermeasures to Trump’s tariff impact.
READ ALSO: Trump Imposes 14% Tariff on Nigerian Imports Amid Global Trade Offensive
Idakolo: Trump’s tariff will eliminate Nigeria’s revenue from US exports.
Gbolade Idakolo, the CEO of SD & D Capital Management, predicted that Trump’s tariff increase will have a detrimental effect on Nigeria’s export revenue to the US.
He said that because of Trump’s tariff, Nigeria received fewer US dollars, and the value of the naira declined relative to the US dollar.
“President Trump’s global policy of reciprocal trade tariffs on Nigeria and other African countries amidst America’s first policy of the USA will negatively affect Nigeria’s earnings from exports to the United States.
“Nigeria has seen an increase in trade with the US in recent years, with crude oil, gas, and fertilisers taking centre stage. Dangote refinery has even started exporting refined crude and fertilisers to the USA.
“This imposition of 14 percent tariffs on imports from Nigeria will reduce revenue at a crucial period when the Nigerian government is looking for increased revenue for debt servicing and budget performance and economic sustainability.
“This tariff policy would also weaken the naira against the US dollar because it would lead to reduced inflow of US dollars into the economy, thereby creating scarcity and reducing the strength of the naira.
“Although this tariff policy of the United States is targeted at all American trading partners, Nigeria and indeed Africa would get the short end of the stick.”
As a solution, he said, “Nigeria now needs to diversify its exports and also look for favourable trade relations with other countries, especially other leading trade partners like China, India, and the European Union, to cushion the effect of US trade tariffs.
“Nigeria also needs to seek favourable trade terms with fellow African countries to scale up trade cooperation amongst African countries.”
“Nigeria and other African countries should take note of this new US trade war regarding their over-reliance on certain major trading partners,” he continued.
To lessen the effects of the global economic slump, Nigeria need a concerted, proactive response—Oyedokun
Prof. Godwin Oyedokun, a don at Lead City University in Ibadan, stated that the Nigerian government needs to take aggressive and coordinated steps to lessen the global economic slump after the tariff decision by the Trump administration.
“The scenario you have described, with a slump in global stocks, oil prices, and the naira-dollar exchange rate following President Trump’s tariff announcement, would indeed create significant concerns for Nigeria’s economic stability.
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“Oil Price Slump: Nigeria’s economy is heavily reliant on oil revenue. A decline in global oil prices would directly reduce government revenue, impacting its ability to fund its budget and development projects.
“This would also affect foreign exchange reserves, as oil exports are a major source of foreign currency.
“Stock Market Decline: A global stock market downturn could lead to capital flight from emerging markets like Nigeria, further weakening the naira and reducing investment; it could also impact the value of Nigerian assets held by foreign investors.
“Naira-Dollar Exchange Rate: A weakening naira would increase the cost of imports, leading to higher inflation; it would also increase the burden of Nigeria’s foreign debt, which is largely denominated in US dollars.
“Tariffs imposed by the US could significantly reduce Nigeria’s export competitiveness, particularly for key commodities like crude oil and certain agricultural products; this would further strain foreign exchange earnings and potentially lead to job losses in export-oriented sectors; the removal of benefits that were previously enjoyed under AGOA would be very damaging.
“Fiscal Policy: The government would need to implement measures to reduce spending and diversify revenue sources.
“This could include cutting non-essential expenditures and improving tax collection. Monetary Policy: The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) would need to carefully manage the exchange rate and inflation carefully. This might involve adjusting interest rates and intervening in the foreign exchange market.
“Diversification: Accelerating efforts to diversify the economy away from oil dependence would be crucial. This includes promoting sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and technology; Trade Negotiations: Engaging in diplomatic efforts to mitigate the impact of the US tariffs and exploring alternative trade partnerships; and Protection of vulnerable populations: The government would need to implement social safety nets to protect vulnerable populations from the effects of rising inflation.
“In summary, a coordinated and proactive response from the Nigerian government, coupled with strategic economic policies and international cooperation, would be essential to mitigate the negative impacts of such a global economic downturn,” he told The Intercept.
Trump tarriffs: Wakeup call for Nigeria
Additionally, Prof. Ajibola, a well-known economist and former president and chairman of the Council of the Chartered Institute of Bankers, stated that the worldwide decline in equities and oil prices is a warning to the Nigerian government to reconsider its foreign trade policies.
“The United States of America assumed global leadership in economic, financial, and trade matters after the end of the Second World War in 1945.
“Since then, any major shifts in American policies in any of these areas usually cause trepidations among economic managers globally.
“The current waves, as initiated by the White House, are no exceptions. As the number one economy in the world, America wields a lot of influence in determining the contents and contexts of international economic relations.
“The happenings in the global stock market, global oil market, and values of tradable currencies are direct reactions, albeit panicky, to some of the current policy shifts by America. This may continue for a while before nations readjust their trade policies to accommodate the sudden shifts.
“For Nigeria, America is one of the major trading partners. But Nigeria has the leverage to deepen trade relations with other key partners such as China, Japan, and other European and Asian countries to ward off the devastating effects of a hostile tariff and like policies on Nigeria’s economy.
“If AfCFTA is pursued with the desired determination, it will enhance intra-African trade and reduce the reliance of African nations on the other parts of the world. Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, and a few others hold the ace in driving AfCFTA to success.
“American current posture is a wake-up call to Nigeria to reexamine its international trade and economic relations.
“Overconcentration of trading with few countries is not desirable. The more diversified the trade relations, the better to reduce unsavoury effects of unanticipated negative policy shifts from major trading partners on Nigeria’s economy,” he told The Intercept.
Nigeria, US trade negotiation must address Trump’s tariff impact — CPPE
Dr Muda Yusuf, the CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, stated that in order to reverse the detrimental effects of Trump’s tariffs, trade talks between the US, Nigeria, and other countries must be mediated.
“The unfolding scenario concerning the Trump tariff war is very unsettling and has far-reaching implications for the macro environment and stability of the country.
“As a country, we don’t have too much to worry about regarding the bilateral trade issue, but it has an impact on the trade war on the global economy and some key variables that can upset macroeconomic fundamentals.
“The development has major implications for Nigeria’s revenue, fiscal deficits, and other macroeconomic variables such as inflation. Implication for exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves: Nigeria is over 80 percent dependent on oil and gas for foreign exchange earnings.
“The exchange rate is under pressure, and if this continues, it may create a major crisis in Nigeria’s FX market.
“These also have implications for portfolio investments, which could pose a risk to FX rate stability.
“Quite a lot to worry about on the implications of Trump’s tariff war on the global economy generally.
“We are hoping that with time, there will be some negotiation between the US and other countries,” he said.
